Monday, 4 November 2013

Modi and Bihar

The way Modi is targeting Bihar is worth noting.
We know that general elections are coming in India in 2014 and whoever wins in the election will get to 'rule over India' for the next five years.
Now everybody knows that Modi supporters are quite active in the social networking world. We also know that their are many press reporters who are tacit supporters of Modi and BJP and write articles 'favoring them'.
Modi and BJP they know that one state which holds the key and that is the state of Bihar. They are out there in full force to defeat Nitish Kumar and ensure that Congress does not benefit from Nitish's loss and the benefit goes to BJP and Modi.
If you look at my analysis earlier, Bihar is one of the 'dilly-dallying' state and everyone knows since India's independence that whichever way the two states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh go, the Indian Govt. goes that way. In other words, these states 'dictate' who will form the Govt at center though not directly but indirectly through the 'ballot'.
In recent times, South Indian states are able to form an 'anti-axis' to Bihar and UP. And it has been observed that whichever way the South Indian states go that dictate the Govt. getting formed at the Center.
And Modi is a notch different for South Indian folks. Firstly Modi belongs to Gujarat which is a Gujarati speaking state and not Hindi speaking. In India there is an ongoing conflict.
Though Hindi is the most widely spoken and widely recognized/understood language in India, no one wants to declare it or accept it as a national language. And it is mainly those non-Hindi states including states of South India.
For them Modi is a 'non-Hindi belt' leader and that immediately becomes acceptable to non-Hindi states.
So Modi will face little resistance to become PM from South Indian states and East Indian states both which are non-Hindi states. In the case of East India, Naveen Pattnaik and Mamta Banerjee may ultimately support Modi on the same count of his being a non-Hindi belt leader.
Here in 2014, Maharshtra may hold the key. Everybody knows that there is a hidden conflict between Maharashtrians and Gujaratis. Which way Maharashtra goes may be decider to decide whether Modi becomes PM.
That is why Modi is targeting Bihar and if Modi wins the heart and minds of Biharis in the heartland of Biharis, there would be little anyone can do to stop him from grabbing the PM seat in Delhi.
Many Biharis are there in Mumbai and Delhi and they may ultimately support Modi if Modi wins Bihar. UP is no doubt there. UP is no doubt an active place for politics due to the Ram Janambhoomi case.
Also, Telangana would be formed which was the BJP dream since beginning as BJP may stand to gain tremendously from Telangana as it had only a minuscule presence in united Andhra Pradesh.
Thus BJP and Modi knows that Bihar being a 'very populous state' and where 'it has to go alone' holds the key to Modi becoming PM.

No comments:

Post a Comment