Wednesday, 28 September 2016

World War Scenario

I feel India-Pakistan conflict has the potential to snowball into a World War scenario.
Presently, what is happening the world I will try to outline in points below:
  • Presently (2016), there is a conflict in Syria and Libya. 
  • Libyan conflict(2011) happened when the Security Council came together including Russia and China.
  • Syrian conflict similarly happened (2011) but Syria is not that well endowed with oil like Libya and so the countries of the West did not take that much interest to solve it like Iraq and Libya.
  • Now Russia was going to hold Winter Olympics at Sochi (2014). So it diverted much of their insurgents to Syria by giving them free passage.
  • In the meantime Russia invaded and took control of Crimean peninsula (2013).
  • The West was spooked. We know the Crimean War was one of the most brutal in history. It happened hundreds of years ago (1850's) between the countries of the West and Russia and Russia lost.
  • Similarly Russia has lost in Afghanistan (1989) and Russia lost the Cold War (1991). USSR got divided into 15 countries. USSR which shared border with Afghanistan, now the successor Russia's border was pushed hundreds of kms inside and four new countries came between Russia and Afghanistan.
  • Afghanistan is the place where "The Great Game" has been playing for decades if not centuries.
  • Now in the meantime when USSR got divided, Russia was weakened and could not have a voice in the world.
  • This was exploited by USA and its allies to the max. They invaded Iraq, Somalia, Yugoslavia, Iraq again twice and carried all sorts of haywire politics in the world.
  • It took almost a decade if not more for Russia to have a say in the world.
  • Now in 2001 there was Sep 11 attack and Pakistan was forced to side with the US and the team. 
  • Then there was Parliament attack in India and India and Pakistan came very close to war. At that time Russian experts had warned that even if 5% of the Nuclear warheads are used by India and Pakistan, it would lead to the death or radiation related effect for 95% of the population of the Indian subcontinent. They concluded this by simulating nuclear explosions in the subcontinent.
  • Anyways war was prevented and nations went about their business till Modi led BJP came to power. Here came to power a leader who was willing to "sell the country to the highest bidder".
  • Already America had its eyes on the Indian subcontinent.
  • It was already bedding with Pakistan. But now a new damsel came around and that was Modi led India and it wanted to offer itself to the Americans. Americans saw Pakistan as "spent" and India as a lovely beauty who was offering herself to them. So why will America leave the chance?
  • US in mad craze to bed India, offered its prize or gift "Afghanistan" to India, the one for which it has blown up 1 Trillion dollars.
  • But Russia wants a piece of "the great game" and that is Afghanistan.
  • And when Russia sees America has abandoned its long time bedding partner Pakistan, it moved in. And now India does not have the same type of freedom to be a bully in the region when Russia is involved.
  • That is the reason, inspite of the Uri attack, Russia went ahead with the "military exercises" with Pakistan.
  • Because Russia knows that India has "sold out" to America. PM Modi has opened all doors and windows of India to Americans and their allies. Also, involvement of India in Afghanistan implies involvement in region which has traditionally been "Russia's background".
  • Thus Russia needs a new outlet. Remember the adage "When one door closes, another one opens". Thus Russia feels Pakistan is a new area from where it can reach Afghanistan.
  • Certainly USA is thousands of kms away from India and Afghanistan and Pakistan. But for Russia it is like their background, And when they are denied access to that they will try to find a way. Erstwhile enemies (Pakistan and Russia) have now the chance to be friends. 
  • USA will ultimately have to leave Afghanistan. It is already the longest war in their history and perhaps would be the most expensive. Because nobody funds it. Unlike in Iraq where Saudi Arabia was funding the war. What after that? That is the key question.
  • PM Modi took all the right steps but perhaps did not factor the Russian factor and their miltary might. 
  • Russia knows that only way to tackle the Americans would be in their own language. Only by being proactive in the regions America is forcing its hegemony can the Russian future be ensured.
  • Already Russia would be regretting why it supported US, UK and France in Libya in 2011. And that is why it involved itself in Syria (to stop their nefarious designs).
  • Else Russia will be swept off the ground. Presently what we see that USA, UK, France, India, Japan, Australia etc have come together into one block. Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, Pakistan are coming together.
  • India has to realise not to go in with America as American influence has been detrimental to several countries. Modi, BJP and RSS should not try to "Sell out" the country. They should realise that bedding with America will hurt India more. America is already in huge debt of 20 trillion dollars as was discussed in Trump-Clinton debate. 6 trillion dollar is the expenditure for the wars in the Middle East and elsewhere. Does India want to go in the same path? It is definitely not recommended.

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