China Growth Engine

•  The subject of this post is titled "China Growth Engine"
• This is to outline the fact that for the past two or three decades the world was growing.
• It was not growing on its own force but important to note this growth was due to the growth of China.
• China was growing at furious pace and countries and people of many countries were being dragged to economic prosperity in the process.
• I will give an example. In March 2020 markets crashed.
• Subsequently the markets have roared and risen to great heights.
• In a market like this any share you buy would have risen.
• Some shares have risen more than others. Some rose by 50% some by 10% and still some by 100%.
  
• The China growth engine is similar to that.
• Anyone which attached itself to the China engine as a "bogie" or hopped for a ride on this "China engine led train" would have faced growth and develpoment.
• If China grew by 10% or 15% countries doing business with China would have grown by 2% till 10%.
  
• If a developed country like US or Japan grew by 2% it would be too good for them.
• While little backward country like India or Botswana would have grown by 7-8% and that would be too good.
• Thing is being associated with China was good for the world economy and the economies who associated themselves with China.
• It was good for world trade.
• It was like "outsourcing" the manufacturing jobs to China who are experts and world leaders in manufacturing sector.
• Much like India is like a leader in IT and Technology where processes are outsourced to India.
• "Outsourcing" is based on this concept where you do businesses with what you good at and leave processes like payroll or call center and back office to offices in places where it does not matter whether it is Brazil or Phillipines or India.
• Knowledge of English is required for soft skills which places like Ireland and India have.
• But for "manufacturing of hard core technology items" China is world leader and world knows that.
• Decoupling from China will be disaster for world economy and will affect different  countries in different manner.
• I will say for US, Japan, Australia, Europe it will disaster as their costs will increase and no country can match China in manufacturing. 
• They have high hopes on countries like India. I will say they don't know India. India is a country which is known for lethargy and "leg pulling".
• India like "crabs in container" story where crabs keep pulling each other down and so no one can escape.
• I am not sure whether Japan or EU or Americans would like to enter India where they will be laughed at behind their backs. Indian culture is like that.
• And decoupling from China will be disaster for country like India.
• They have to buy technology from South Korea or Japan or Germany which will be more costly for developing country.
• I am using RealMe phone which if same capacity (RAM and memory) if I would have bought Samsung would have cost at least 70-80% more if not double.
• India has more to lose if it decouples from China than developed country.
• Once again I would reiterate that India and China need to work together as Asian nations to enjoy the benefits else they will face a "new imperialism" where one will be used against the other by bigger powers.
• India if it somehow manages to keep the "imperial nations" out it will lose even more as these "predatory nations" will charge more money to India for defence procurement.
• Precious money needed for India development will be have to be diverted to defence.
• India will have development growth rate even lesser than so called "Hindu rate of growth" a term which was used in India before liberalization in 1991 in teh age of "mixed economy".
• The future of India is showing now.
• Few people (who will be Indian) will be controlling entire Indian economy and fruits of development and wealth will be concentrating in these hands.
• And India will have play with wooden toys as latest toys from China would be prevented reaching India just to take toys as example. 
• But same concept is applicable to entire gamut of technologies just like toys.
  
• India is on reversal path not to earlier to 1991 but to proverbial "stone age" like they show in TV serials of Ramayana and Mahabharat.